Election nerdery

[chickenfeet]

 Based on the latest riding by riding predictions by Eric Grénier in the upcoming federal election only 109 ridings out of 338 will produce an overall majority (50% plus of votes cast) for the winner.  Only in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba will even half the seats produce a clear winner.  In the most hotly contested provinces; Ontario and BC, the picture is even less clear.  Only 23/121 ridings in Ontario look likely to produce a majority and only 8/42 in BC.  The case for some form of proportional voting system could hardly be clearer.

Comments

[dgilks]

There is no doubt that the first past the post system is broken. The question in my mind is whether the preference is then for a proportional representation system or some form of instant runoff system.

I tend to think that it depends on whether a country's politics are more like Germany or Israel. If you could be confident in having relatively stable, cooperative coalitions like Germany's then PR (whether MMP or otherwise) probably makes sense. On the other hand, if you have a fractured, hyper-partisan system, then it seems best to opt for IRV which is more likely to produce majority governments and isn't particularly problematic for third parties in countries where the third major party enjoys significant if not overwhelming support (ie the Canadian and UK scenarios vs the Australian one).

[chickenfeet]

My preference would be for some form of PR, preferably AV, because I think it would precipitate a realignment of political forces in a way that made for more people actually being able to vote for a party they supported rather than against the one they hate most. I think that's the weakness with IRV but I take your point. Something that forced Israeli politics to be less extreme would be welcome!