Zimbabwe

[chickenfeet]

Here's my prediction for what's going to happen in Zimbabwe. I don't think Mugabe or his potential heirs in ZANU-PF are going to allow an opposition win. Equally, I doubt (could be wrong here) that they are dumb enough to try and persuade the world (South Africa really because no-one else really matters) that Mugabe has polled more votes than Tsvangirai. So, my guess is that the official results will show that Tsvangirai polled just less than the 50% needed for outright victory thus forcing a run off which Mugabe will narrowly win through a combination of actually winning over most of the third candidate votes and fraud exercised a bit less negligently than in this round.

Comments

[kaet.livejournal.com]

It would be a brilliant way to go, though, wouldn't it, if you were just fed up with being in power? Organise a rigged election with all kinds of voting irregularities, and no international observers, delay the result for weeks, all the while unconvincingly defending your conduct. And then announce you've lost by 99.5% to 0.5%, and never be seen again.

[kittenexploring.livejournal.com]

An alternative would be to announce you won by 99.5% but have decided that you still have to go and are handing over power to Tsvangirai. (It's not you, it's me. I'm too good for you) Offer to stay in power if anyone wants to question the poll result.

[kalypso-v.livejournal.com]

And then if anyone protests declare a state of emergency? News bulletins last night suggested everything might turn on the army - while the top general has sworn not to allow an opposition win, the rank and file are pretty fed up for the same reasons as the general public.