A few thoughts on the election and the future

[chickenfeet]

It went pretty much as expected. The CPC did surprisingly well in Quebec and rather badly in Ontario but the overall outcome is not dissimilar.

The NDP picked up two handy seats in the Toronto core but didn't really dent the Liberals' hold on the city.

There were a few odd results. Who would have predicted that Belinda Stronach would get reelected?

Ten Quebecers in the CPC caucus should act a some sort of brake on the loonier, socially conservative, Western chauvinists.

CPC+NDP = 153, even without a recount in Muskoka-Parry Sound. So, no PR based deal going there unfortunately.

Any sort of CPC/Bloc or CPC/Liberal alliance would appear to be unthinkable.

A Harper government would therefore appear to be highly unstable unless there are major defections from either the Bloc (unlikely) or the Liberals. The latter would only appear even remotely possible if there were to be a huge dust up over the leadership.

Dare Harper gamble on an early election while the Liberals are leaderless?

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

If you were an optimist, you might think that Harper would get the independent Andre Arthur onside, then get everyone to vote for Peter Milliken or whoever the Liberals throw up for Speaker, then have a 154-153 advantage in voting, presuming everyone shows up ... that's a hard road, though. Of course, given the considerable boost the Tories enjoyed from first-past-the-post this time, I don't see them being keen on PR in any event. Not sure what will happen now.

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

The FPP boost to the Tories wan't huge; 40.3% of the seats on 36.3% of the vote. They have been seriously shafted by FPP in the past and it's not unreasonable to suppose that tactical voting in Quebec cost them quite a few votes. The case for PR from a Tory perspective is a pretty good one still. That said it isn't going to happen.

[forthright.livejournal.com]

Oops, sorry, that was me. But yes, I agree, it isn't likely to happen - I just don't think it would have been any more likely to happen if the NDP had won 31 instead of 29.