A few thoughts on the election and the future

[chickenfeet]

It went pretty much as expected. The CPC did surprisingly well in Quebec and rather badly in Ontario but the overall outcome is not dissimilar.

The NDP picked up two handy seats in the Toronto core but didn't really dent the Liberals' hold on the city.

There were a few odd results. Who would have predicted that Belinda Stronach would get reelected?

Ten Quebecers in the CPC caucus should act a some sort of brake on the loonier, socially conservative, Western chauvinists.

CPC+NDP = 153, even without a recount in Muskoka-Parry Sound. So, no PR based deal going there unfortunately.

Any sort of CPC/Bloc or CPC/Liberal alliance would appear to be unthinkable.

A Harper government would therefore appear to be highly unstable unless there are major defections from either the Bloc (unlikely) or the Liberals. The latter would only appear even remotely possible if there were to be a huge dust up over the leadership.

Dare Harper gamble on an early election while the Liberals are leaderless?

Comments

[globetrotter1.livejournal.com]

I am horrified to see how well the Tories did in Quebec. Let's hope they do act as a brake. I suppose they can always pull a Stronach if need be. ;-)

I'm also horrified that Jean Lapierre was reelected. How did this happen? Pettigrew is out, which made me grin.

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

I'm also horrified that Jean Lapierre was reelected. How did this happen?

You have to wonder how a Liberal could get only 35% of the vote in Outremont!

[globetrotter1.livejournal.com]

I suck as a pundit, I thought he'd be defeated.

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

I think that four way races like Outremont are really hard to call.

[sorceror.livejournal.com]

I am horrified to see how well the Tories did in Quebec.

What, would you rather have had those votes go to the Bloc? The Tories kept them under %50, and gave a federalist outlet to discontent with the Liberals.

[frankie-ecap.livejournal.com]

How do you feel about all this?

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

Well I don't think the sky is falling. In some ways it's the best of the reasonably likely options. The Tories will have a pretty hard time pushing through the more extreme parts of their agenda. The Liberals will have an opportunity to do some house cleaning and refocusssing. It remains to be seen whether they take that opportunity or give us another bent apparatchnik from Quebec as leader with the usual suspects backing him up. I don't know where the NDP goes from here. Without PR it's hard to see how they can push past 30-40 seats tops and I think the Liberals and the Bloc will derail any moves towards PR.

[okoshun.livejournal.com]

Who would have predicted that Belinda Stronach would get reelected?

I was definitely surprised by that, and it wasn't by a small margin either. So, it makes me wonder, is it because the riding was voting against the Conservatives or because they were voting for the individual in their riding?

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

It's got to be a bit of both. It's a traditionally Liberal riding but one would have thought that more people would have been pissed about her defection.

[okoshun.livejournal.com]

I hadn't realized that it is traditionally a Liberal riding - it makes a bit more sense then. I definitely would have thought that more people would have been pissed off by the defection, but the loyalty to/desire for the Liberal party must have won out.

[(Anonymous)]

If you were an optimist, you might think that Harper would get the independent Andre Arthur onside, then get everyone to vote for Peter Milliken or whoever the Liberals throw up for Speaker, then have a 154-153 advantage in voting, presuming everyone shows up ... that's a hard road, though. Of course, given the considerable boost the Tories enjoyed from first-past-the-post this time, I don't see them being keen on PR in any event. Not sure what will happen now.

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

The FPP boost to the Tories wan't huge; 40.3% of the seats on 36.3% of the vote. They have been seriously shafted by FPP in the past and it's not unreasonable to suppose that tactical voting in Quebec cost them quite a few votes. The case for PR from a Tory perspective is a pretty good one still. That said it isn't going to happen.

[forthright.livejournal.com]

Oops, sorry, that was me. But yes, I agree, it isn't likely to happen - I just don't think it would have been any more likely to happen if the NDP had won 31 instead of 29.