A few thoughts on the election and the future

[chickenfeet]

It went pretty much as expected. The CPC did surprisingly well in Quebec and rather badly in Ontario but the overall outcome is not dissimilar.

The NDP picked up two handy seats in the Toronto core but didn't really dent the Liberals' hold on the city.

There were a few odd results. Who would have predicted that Belinda Stronach would get reelected?

Ten Quebecers in the CPC caucus should act a some sort of brake on the loonier, socially conservative, Western chauvinists.

CPC+NDP = 153, even without a recount in Muskoka-Parry Sound. So, no PR based deal going there unfortunately.

Any sort of CPC/Bloc or CPC/Liberal alliance would appear to be unthinkable.

A Harper government would therefore appear to be highly unstable unless there are major defections from either the Bloc (unlikely) or the Liberals. The latter would only appear even remotely possible if there were to be a huge dust up over the leadership.

Dare Harper gamble on an early election while the Liberals are leaderless?

Comments

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

The FPP boost to the Tories wan't huge; 40.3% of the seats on 36.3% of the vote. They have been seriously shafted by FPP in the past and it's not unreasonable to suppose that tactical voting in Quebec cost them quite a few votes. The case for PR from a Tory perspective is a pretty good one still. That said it isn't going to happen.

[forthright.livejournal.com]

Oops, sorry, that was me. But yes, I agree, it isn't likely to happen - I just don't think it would have been any more likely to happen if the NDP had won 31 instead of 29.