So how did it all turn out?

See previous post.

Shrimps with turmeric and coconut sauce. This was wonderful. Rich, mellow, fragrant, fabulous colour. Using serrano chillis was a big plus.

Yellow veg curry. A bit dull. I've found that with other stock based Thai curries.

Pomelo salad. I liked this one. It had a chilli jam and coconut cream dressing that really enhanced the pomelo and roasted coconut in the salad.

Hot and sweet fish sauce with veggies. Quite good. I could have used more oomph but the lemur liked it.

Squid steamed with chilli and lime. Quite good. The squid were on the large size and it might have been better with smaller, more delicate ones.

Mystery greens (might have been Siamese watercress, not sure) stirfried with garlic, chillis, yellow beans and oyster sauce. This is a staple veggie dish for Thai meals around here. It's always good pretty much whatever greens are used.

There is now a ton of stuff in the freezer!

X-posted to gastrogasm

Iraqi death toll at 655,000 +/-

Johns Hopkins' researchers have updated the death toll due to the Iraqi war to an estimated figure of 655,000 since the invasion in 2003. The report will again be criticised by those with an interest in keeping the numbers down but if, as reported, it used the same approach as the previous Lancet study there is really no reason to suppose that the data doesn't mean what it says it means. Let's get that straight so that anyone reading this is primed against the mislogic that will be used to attack the study.

The study says, using standard epidemiological methods, that since the invasion the number of deaths, subject to usual statistical error bounds, is 655,000 more than would have been expected in the same period before the invasion. It's based on extrapolating to the whole population an increase in the crude death rate in the sample population. In this case the death rate increased from 5.5 per 1000 to 13.3 per thousand. That is a huge increase that even allowing for sampling error simply cannot be due to chance. For context, and using as examples countries with a similar age structure to Iraq's, it's equivalent to increasing from Egypt's death rate to Nigeria's.

Don't be misled by people who trash this figure because it is an order of magnitude higher than the Iraqi Body Count numbers or anything else based on body count. This figure measures something very different. IBC attempts to count the number of people killed in acts of violence based on morgue returns. In doing so it is producing a lower bound figure for those killed directly by coalition military activity or by sectarian violence. The Johns Hopkins' study estimates the total excess deaths due to the decline in the quality of life generally in Iraq since the invasion. It doesn't attempt to assign causes of death and, in effect, treats a death because of deterioration in the supply of clean water in exactly the same way as someone shot by US Marines.

This study then is a measure of how thoroughly and comprehensively misgoverned Iraq has been under the post invasion regimes of the US and, now, the quasi government in Baghdad.

ETA: Full report here as a PDF. Key extract below.

We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654 965 (392 979–942 636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2·5% of the population in the study area. Of post-invasion deaths, 601 027 (426 369–793 663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gunfire.

Myspace weirdness

I have a Myspace account. I don't use it much but it's handy for keeping up with a few people who do. One thing is really bugging me though. I keep getting "friend requests" from what are obviously bogus people. They are always young women with pornstar photos. What's the scam? What have they got to gain (or I to lose) by my 'friending' them? I don't get it.

More on the Johns Hopkins paper

From the BBC.

US President George W Bush has dismissed the report, saying he does not consider it "credible".

"I stand by the figure that a lot of innocent people have lost their life," he said.

"Six-hundred thousand or whatever they guessed at is just... it's not credible."

Way to go for insightful statistical analysis! Let's repeat it. The methodology is fundamentally sound. The numbers are estimates subject to normal sampling error. Whether one takesmidpoint or upper bound or lower bound figures one is looking at numbers comparable to the Ruanda genocide. Facts don't go away because an innumerate twerp claims that they are "not credible".

There is an alternative

OK enough depressing news about Iraq and the inhabitants of the CretinCondo in DC.

French cartoonist Reiser presents a viable alternative to mass murder a la Bush.

847x1152 pixels - may need to zoom. 124kb.

Why is religious belief privileged?

I find the debates over the wearing of veils interesting. Generally speaking I think that if someone wants to wear a veil they should. Not because it's part of their religion but because I can't think of a good reason why they shouldn't. I note though that the debate is couched almost entirely in religious terms. That prompts me to ask the question why religious beliefs should be held to justify behaviour that would be be banned or discouraged if indulged in because of other beliefs, however deeply held. For example, why should a committed nudist not be permitted to meet Mr. Jack Straw or attend a lecture at Imperial College in a state of undress? They certainly couldn't be held to be a security risk! It might be argued that nudity offends some people but that, of course, is precisely the argument used against veils.

The English as she is spoke

From a packet of Vietnamese crab chips:

Using the viba oven at the rate of micropower (capacity of 600-1000W) from 40 to 60 seconds.