Buffer force

[chickenfeet]

It seems the latest idea for dealing with the situation in Lebanon is some sort of international force to do something in the south of the country. If I read code words like "robust" correctly the purpose is essentially to destroy Hezbollah and act as frontier guards for Israel. No doubt it will be sold to as a "peacekeeping force" for, presumably, the same value of "peace" that prevails in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The whole idea seems immensely problematic. No-one in the Islamic world (including most of the population of southern Lebanon) is going to buy this as anything other than an armed intervention in favour of Israel. It therefore seems reasonable to assume that any troops deployed will come under the same sort of attack as in Afghanistan and Iraq which isn't a particularly appealing prospect.

There is a major problem about where the troops might come from and under what command structure. The US (and presumably Israel) don't want a 'blue helmeted' force and the optics of a NATO led mission would be almost as bad as an American led one. Looking around too it's hard to see where the troops would come from. Americans and Brits are right out for obvious reasons. The Canadians and Australians are stretched way too thin already. Of the armed forces capable of deploying for such a mission and not guaranteed to make a complete balls of it that would appear to leave France, Germany, Sweden, Turkey, India and Japan. For various reasons it seems highly improbable that Sweden, Germany or Japan would be prepared to make more than a token commitment, if that. I guess the best bet, if there has to be an intervention force, would be a Franco-Turkish one, though how 'neutral' the Israelis would consider the French to be might pose issues. Ironically, the French would probably deploy the Legion for such a task which would result in a largely German force protecting Israel.

Looking at it more broadly, am I the only one who is concerned that the current reaction to any hot spot (or at least one where sufficiently white people are getting killed) is to send a polyglot expedition with weird command structures and an unclear mission? At least Palmerston had some idea of what he expected a gunboat to do.

Comments

[shezan.livejournal.com]

Actually, Olmert has said today he would welcome Arab League participants in such a force, and several Arab countries have now expressed enough dismay at the perspective of Iran ruling the region through Hezbollah that it's not as science-fictionesque as it sounds.

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

Olmert has said today he would welcome Arab League participants in such a force

That is promising. The problem then becomes who, apart from the Saudis, have units one could trust not to make a hash of it.

[shezan.livejournal.com]

... and your touching trust in the organising capacities of the Saudi military is based on exactly what?

(But I think the Jordanians, in fact, have a decent military, and so do the Moroccans. In fact I know a prof at Kenitra War College who's pretty impressive, all the more so because he's one of M6s advisersafter having been jailed by H2.)

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

I'd forgotten about the Jordanians and I'm lamentably ignorant about the Moroccans. The Saudi brass aren't up to much but they have a few well trained and well equipped combat units.

[shezan.livejournal.com]

they have a few well trained and well equipped combat units

That's good news, I suppose. Considering how the Saudis repress the Shia in the kingdom (I think they actually hold a quiet record for destruction of Shia mosques in the region), I suppose even the more religiously-bent would still object to Hezbollah. I was very unimpressed by the little I've seen of their military, but admittedly they weren't about to show off to a female journalist, and the guy I spoke to made it absolutely clear what he thought of infidel women in the professions. The Gulf military are extremely dismissive of the Saudi, but OTOH everyone hates the Saudis in the Gulf, so I suppose you can't much trust them on that. What sort of clinched my opinion were the hilarious accounts by a French coach of trying to train the Saudis to play football, as a good insight to state of mind as regards effort & discipline. Mind you, it was a few years back, and their team did make it to the World Cup, so...

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

I think it's probably moot anyway. I don't think any of the interested parties (except perhaps the Americans) would be keen on having the Saudis involved.

[shezan.livejournal.com]

... and I rather like Widmerpool doing the Palmeston impression here...

[unblinkered.livejournal.com]

On the radio this morning, they were talking about a peacekeeping force made up of French, German and British troops, can't find a handy link to anything more detailed just now, though.

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

The idea that it will/can be a "peacekeeping" force is daft. Hezbollah will make sure that there is no peace to keep. If such a force is deployed it will face a situation as hostile as Iraq or Afghanistan. I have no idea where the British would find forces for an extended deployment. One day the government will wake up to the fact that you can't police the world with 40 understrength infantry battalions.

[unblinkered.livejournal.com]

I'd be of the opinion that the term "peacekeeping force" is a bit of an oxymoron at the best of times anyway, so I totally agree with your comment! Especially since the German collective guilt ensures that Germany can never be impartial when it comes to Israel. Not to mention that with Merkel at the helm, the primary objective these days seems to be to suck up to Bush...

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

I wonder too, whether the German public would stand for an overseas deployment of that nature. Better to let the French use their Germans!

[shezan.livejournal.com]

Cause we have plenty of those, except we call them Alsatians?

*runs*

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

I meant the ones in The Legion but I gather it's not unknown for Alsatians to claim to be German for that purpose. You must have heard the story (probably apocryphal) of the frustrated German parlementaire trying to negotiate the surrender of the Free French at Bir Hakeim who, having been subjected to a torrent of abuse in several European languages, plaintively exclaimed in perfect English "Doesn't anyone here speak French?".

[shezan.livejournal.com]

... and that was only one reason why the bastard couldn't negotiate a surrender, too. (A cousin of mine died there.)

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

sorry to hear that

[rparvaaz.livejournal.com]

Some 700 Indians troops are already in Lebanon. I don't see us sending more, not without a UN mandate. That has always been a major sticking point for India - our troops routinely go on UN missions [we supply the third largest number of troops to UN peacekeeping efforts, after Pakistan and Bangladesh], but we will not fight under US or NATO command. My friend's brother was due to go to Lebanon in August, for the UN posting, but she has been incommunicado for the last week and I'm not sure if I need to worry about Rajesh, or if his orders have been changed. :(

[chickenfeet2003.livejournal.com]

I knew there were Indians in UNIFIL but what is being talked about is clearly not UNIFIL2. The current deployment is a blue berets and side arms deal like Cyprus. I think what's being talked about would involve very different rules of engagement. I think the issue of whether it's to be a NATO, UN or EU force (if anything) is very much undecided.

[shezan.livejournal.com]

(Unrelated: Want to see Koko's Army!!!)

[rparvaaz.livejournal.com]

*g*

The day approaches...