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Odd statistic
Jan. 11th, 2009 01:21 pm7/20 Barclays Premier league clubs are from Lancashire (proper boundaries). That's really an astonishingly high number.
Also, Lancashire 2- London 0. Just saying.
Also, Lancashire 2- London 0. Just saying.
Spot the statistics geek
Apr. 8th, 2008 08:50 amYou know you are a geek when the first thought when someone tells you that a friend ended up in a coma after being kicked by a horse and your first thought is "Poisson distribution".
Birth rate
Jan. 21st, 2007 12:04 pmI've been on Live Journal about three years. I have roughly 180 distinct humans on my f-list. A not inconsiderable proportion are either male, gay, transgendered or not of normal reproductive age. Despite that, I calculate that eight of the f-list have got pregnant in those three years. This seems a remarkably large number.
Six Nations by the numbers
Mar. 11th, 2006 10:40 amI've been reflecting some more on home field advantage and the IRB rankings system. Apparently home field is worth 3 ranking points in the IRB's system. If one then applies the current rankings to the Six Nations, making the three point correction one gets the following (where a positive value is the home teams advantage over the visitors and a negative value shows the visitors as favourites):
France vs Italy +15.16
Ireland vs Italy +11.80
Wales vs Italy +11.70
Italy vs England -7.56
Ireland vs Scotland +7.04
France vs Ireland +6.36
Wales vs Scotland +6.31
England vs Wales +5.39
France vs England +4.70
England vs Ireland +4.70
Scotland vs France -4.40
Ireland vs Wales +3.73
Scotland vs England -2.70
Italy vs Scotland -1.76
Wales vs France -1.09
This table is therefore ranked by likelihood of an upset from least to most. As you can see, so far it has been a remarkably good predictor. Two of the three "upsets", Scotland's wins against France and England, were in fact two of the three games (played so far) most likely to produce an upset. The only hugely against the odds result is, in fact, today's draw in Cardiff.
Looking ahead, it suggests that an England win in Paris is not impossible but would be even more impressive than Scotland's home wins and that a Scottish win later today is even less likely but, if pulled off, would leave Scotland with a very good shot at the championship. That said, the numbers very much favour a French win.
France vs Italy +15.16
Ireland vs Italy +11.80
Wales vs Italy +11.70
Italy vs England -7.56
Ireland vs Scotland +7.04
France vs Ireland +6.36
Wales vs Scotland +6.31
England vs Wales +5.39
France vs England +4.70
England vs Ireland +4.70
Scotland vs France -4.40
Ireland vs Wales +3.73
Scotland vs England -2.70
Italy vs Scotland -1.76
Wales vs France -1.09
This table is therefore ranked by likelihood of an upset from least to most. As you can see, so far it has been a remarkably good predictor. Two of the three "upsets", Scotland's wins against France and England, were in fact two of the three games (played so far) most likely to produce an upset. The only hugely against the odds result is, in fact, today's draw in Cardiff.
Looking ahead, it suggests that an England win in Paris is not impossible but would be even more impressive than Scotland's home wins and that a Scottish win later today is even less likely but, if pulled off, would leave Scotland with a very good shot at the championship. That said, the numbers very much favour a French win.
